Opposition and pro-government parties battle each other for voter support

In Transnistria, pro-government parties such as the Liberal Democrats face off against an opposition with strong voter support

TIRASPOL (Tiraspol Times) - A new study sponsored by the British government confirms that over the past year, greater political pluralism and an improved information space has taken hold in Pridnestrovie, the unrecognized country which is better known internationally as Transnistria or Transdniestria. Both names originate from the river Dniester which for most of the past one thousand years has formed a historical border separating the Russian-speaking, old Slavic land with Romanian-speaking Moldova to the West.

The move to more democracy began in local elections in early 2005 where candidates loyal to President Igor Smirnov lost in many districs to opposition candidates. Later that same year, in December 2005, the pro-business, free market oriented "Renewal" party (Obnovlenie, in Russian) won majority control of the Supreme Council (Pridnestrovie's 43 member parliament).

This was the first time in PMR's 15 year history as an independent state that an opposition party took control of parliament. It was not lost on outside observers that the transition went smoothly; eloquent testimony to the maturity and democratic commitments of the political system in PMR.

There were none of the political crisis drama or democracy-threatening incidents so familiar in neighboring Ukraine. Instead, the power transition went smooth and almost boring: "More Switzerland than Swaziland," as one Western writer commented.

As part of the smooth hand-over of power to the opposition, young party leader Yevgeny Shevchuk was elected parliamentary speaker. The 38 year old lawyer is seen as a center-right moderate and a technocrat committed to modernization. The party's name, Renewal, is shorthand for much of its free market, Westernized political program.

Growth in plurality picked up steam in 2005

The first serious opposition groupings organized their voices in 2000 and 2001, but it wasn't until 2005 that they got traction and solid support from PMR's pro-independence electorate.

The newer strain of opposition - centered on the Renewal (Obnovlenie) party - has mostly emerged since 2005. It enjoys considerably political and economic power, as it represents the interests of many local, home-grown businesses. It has the support of Tiraspol's Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and a number of large local investors, including the influential Sheriff group. Sheriff, a conglomerate owned by a Moldovan-born businessman and his ethnic Ukrainian partner, owns supermarkets, gas stations and a number of privatized businesses. It is also the main sponsor of FC Sheriff Tiraspol, the country's top soccer team.

Like voters in general, Renewal supports PMR independence and rules out a common state with Moldova. At the same time, the party has a moderate platform with a message of dialogue, understanding and reconciliation. It says that even if the two sides will develop separately, as independent states, it is still necessary that common ground with Moldova can be found. As the case with Ireland and Great Britain has shown, former adversaries can become close partners when the right to self-determination and independence is respected on either side.

" - A more diversified political scene now exists in Transdniester," says columnist and commentator Michael Garner. "Nearly a dozen different parties are now in existence in Pridnestrovie, and only around half of them supportive of the Smirnov-led government."

Unlike the hardline opposition Party of Communists of Pridnestrovie, which has the support of less than 10% of voters, the main opposition - represented by the "Renewal" opposition party - made a decision in 2006 to co-operate rather than to block progress in the country.

" - Shevchuk's Renewal is a party who has chosen a restrained, moderate rhetoric until now, but who's most successfully promoted policies differing from those of the executive branch. They don't just focus on economic issues either," says Garner. "They pursue a clear program of lessening presidential power and introducing a stricter and better enforced set of checks and balances. It was also thanks to them that PMR got a human rights ombudsman with real teeth and truly independent power."

High marks for Smirnov, low marks for his crew

Independence fighter Igor Smirnov continues to enjoy high personal popularity ratings. However, despite a high level of personal popularity, his followers are less well regarded. Voters removed them from power in 2005 at both the local and the national level, and although Igor Smirnov got re-elected for president in 2006, he is now forced to work with an increasingly powerful opposition.

The government's leader, President Igor Smirnov, is popular with the pro-independence majority. His ministers and political supporters are much less popular, however, and his administration faces a challenge from Renewal.

With the room for debate having expanded substantially, voters are holding their elected leaders accountable and demanding results. Unification with Moldova is off the table, and supported by less than 1 in 10, and the population sees independence and recognized state sovereignty as the best way to implement international standards for democracy, human rights and accountable government institutions.

" - This opposition, centered on the Obnovlenie party, has interests that differ in concrete terms from those of the Smirnov leadership," explains Stuart Hensel, Senior Editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In a recent report written for the British government, he highlighted the growth of pluralism and democracy in Transnistria, as he calls the country: "[Renewal] has substantial economic and media clout, and reportedly enjoys almost 40% support. In contrast, the Respublika party closely linked to Mr Smirnov receives just single-digit support."

The Respublika party, also known as the PRP, Pridnestrovian Republican Party, is the main party which supports Igor Smirnov. Other parties, such as the Patriotic Party led by the President's son, and the party "People's Will", led by pro-Smirnov lawmaker Oleg Gudymo, are also solidly in the presidential camp. The same is true for LDP-P, the Liberal Democratic Party of Pridnestrovie.

Breakthrough, a youth organization turned political party, is oppositional on some issues but generally seen to support the Igor Smirnov presidency as well.

Although these parties receive limited voter support individually, their percentages nearly match those of the opposition when they join forces as a block.
In parliament, 23 out of 43 lawmakers are considered opposition. The remaining 20 are supporters of the the Smirnov administration.

Free press has room for opposition views

A number of independent local media outlets exist which identify with this opposition. The Sheriff business group, which is seen as one of the backers of the Renewal opposition party, controls a number of media outlets. Other opposition leaders also have their voice in the media: Out of three opposition candidates in Pridnestrovie's 2006 presidential race, two were journalists and newspaper editors; both of them working as Editor of Chief of their respective opposition newspapers.

Hensel sees the consolidation of opposition party Renewal (Obnovlenie) as a dynamic that dilutes the power of the Smirnov presidency. Other analysts agree with the British expert's opinion.
" - Renewal, or Obnovlenie, along with a handful of smaller opposition parties, demonstrate that greater pluralism in Transdnestr is here to stay," confirms Garner.
Apart from Renewal, the smaller opposition include two Communist parties and a Social Democratic party.

Only one of these opposition parties, the Social Democratic party, is in favor of unification with Moldova under a mutually agreeable confederation arrangement. All other parties back full independence, which echoes the majority voter sentiment.
In a nationwide referendum held in September 2006, results showed more than 94% of votes cast against unification with Moldova. No voter fraud was reported, and although Moldova did not recognize the vote as binding, it has not contested the validity of the results.

Renewal advocates full independence, but at the same time a more moderate approach towards Moldova. It argues that the best chance for growth and improved living standards on both sides of the Dniester lies in burying the hatchet and instead getting on with business. To make that happen, Moldova must respect Pridnestrovie's wish to choose its own future independently. No solution is possible based on a set of proposals for Pridnestrovie which from the outset is already solidly rejected by the vast majority of the population.

Renewal (Obnovlenie), true to its promise to voters, is working to implement both a deeper as well as a broader level of democratization. Standing ready in the sidelines with an alternative offer if or when Igor Smirnov encounters political difficulties, the party and its younger leadership has already been grooming leaders for a future cabinet, should the possibility present itself.

See also:
» Experts: Challenge underway from PMR's opposition-controlled parliament
» For opposition leader, the survival of Pridnestrovie is more important than who has the top job