Dissolution-talk in Belgium offers lessons for Moldova, Transdniestria

The proposed map of the new Flemish Republic which could become reality if the two sides in Belgium fail to come to an agreement

BRUSSELS (Tiraspol Times) - Belgium, one of EU's founding members, has been without a government for over 100 days. Tensions between the majority Flemings and minority Walloons have reached an impasse, and there is open talk of the country's dissolution.

" - Politically, Belgium is beginning to look like Bosnia in 1991, before it plunged into brutal civil war," says Nebojsa Malic, a Bosnian historian who specializes in international relations.

" - The irony, of course, is that Belgium is the headquarters of both the European Union (Brussels), and NATO (Mons). Thus the fountainhead of "Euro-Atlantic integrations," pitched to post-Communist countries as the panacea for all their ills, can hardly keep itself integrated any more."

If Belgium, a model for artificial states everywhere for over 170 years, cannot stay together, what fate does that portend for any union consisting of Moldova with Transdniestria included? Most assuredly a grim one. But first, of course, such a union - if it ever happens - has to be hammered into place. Ever since Moldova was founded, in 1991, it has not had any sovereign control or government rule over Transdniestria whatsoever, and more than nine out of ten of all Transdniestrians want things to continue that way.

Two artificial countries

Belgium was established in 1831 by the British, following a Francophone rebellion in what was then southern Netherlands. The Dutch-speaking Flemings and the French-speaking Walloons have tried to make their country work ever since, cohabitation has always been restive at best.

Just like Belgium, Moldova is also an artificial country. Something called Moldova existed once in the middle ages, but most of it sat in what is today Romania (and part of the EU). In its largest form, the old Moldovan principality extended to the Dniester river. At no time in history did it ever cross the Dniester and include the land on the other side, which is today's Transdniestria.

For most of its history, Moldova was part of Romania. Even today, Moldova is in its majority inhabited by ethnic Romanians and the language is Romanian. The flags of the two countries are virtually identical.

In 1940, with the outbreak of World War II, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin wanted to expand the borders of the Soviet Union, just like his Nazi counterpart Adolf Hitler wanted to make Germany larger, too. Stalin's troops invaded a part of Romania - what is now Moldova - and, against the will of the inhabitants, added it to the Soviet Union; in particular to an autonomous republic which already existed inside the Soviet Union with Tiraspol as its capital. This autonomous republic was known as the Moldavian ASSR although it never, at the time, had included an inch of Moldovan land. After attaching Moldova to it, its status was upgraded to Union Republic (SSR) and the capital was moved to Chisinau. Like other Stalin-era experiments in ethnic engineering, its borders were artificially imposed on various unwilling groups with very little in common.

Like artificial Belgium, the equally artificial Moldavian SSR was composed of two sides who shared neither a language nor a common ethnicity.
In Moldova - traditionally a historical and ethnic part of Romania - the population is 80% ethnically Romanian and the Romanian language is dominant. On the other side of the Dniester, in Transdniestria, there is two-thirds majority Slavic population and Russian is the most widely spoken language. With the exception of the failed Stalin experiment in artificial nation building, the two sides have very little common history.

A two state solution

The most recent Belgian crisis began in June 2007, when following the general elections no party was able to form a government. According to the country's constitution, a government must be composed of equal parts Flemings and Walloons; since the Flemings are some 60% of the population, and French-speaking Walloons make up 30%, it is clear that no government can be established without Walloon approval. The gap in policies and beliefs between the major Fleming and Walloon parties is so wide, however, they have been unable to reach any sort of agreement for over three months now.

Flemish politicians are riding the wave of popular discontent with what most Flemings perceive as Francophone oppression. Flanders contributes 70% of the country's GDP, but the Walloons consume 60% of it in welfare and subsidies.

Politically, the two sides are also far apart. While Fleming parties are largely conservative, Francophone politicians are mostly left-liberal. In the Moldova/Transdniestria conflict, Moldova is oriented towards the USA, the EU and NATO, while Transdniestria wants to balance free trade with Europe and closer cultural ties to Russia. Transdniestria has ruled out EU or NATO membership for that reason, and sees its own future as that of a strictly neutral country.

A leading Belgium politician, the Belgian Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht, visited both Moldova and Transdniestria in 2006. As the OSCE chairman he wanted to force Transdniestria into becoming part of Moldova, advocating a so-called "territorial integrity" which Moldova has never been able to enforce and which is now increasingly dubious in his own country; Belgium.

De Gucht, who is Flemish, now finds himself in a minority as an increasing number of Flemish politicians are openly considering the dissolution of Belgium.

" - We advocate the independence of Flanders, exactly because we do not think that within the Belgian context Flanders can ever be master of its own house," says Frank Vanhecke, MEP and
President of the Vlaams Belang which is planning a unilateral declaration of independence.

This would lead to a two state solution where the Flemish north becomes a separate republic. Similar two state solutions have been advocated by the United States and Europe for other political and territorial conflicts elsewhere, such as Israel and Palestine.

Maps have already been drawn, covering just about every possibility, from two independent states to Flanders joining the Netherlands while Wallonia joins France. In Moldova, many groups want to re-join the old mothercountry; Romania. And as can be expected, Transdniestria, which has historically been part of Russia and Ukraine, instinctively looks to its larger northern neighbors and not to Moldova or Romania.

In Moldova and Transdniestria, the dissolution has already been a 'de facto' reality for more than 17 years. There, the only question is whether or not it is worth the effort to force the two sides together in a country that one side, the minority, is clearly unwilling to become part of against its will.

" - They have very little in common, and they have lived apart now for most of the past two decades," says a European diplomat in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova. "Someone asked me if the toothpaste can be put back in the tube now. I don't think it can."

" - If Czechs and Slovaks can have separate countries, so can Transnistrians and Moldovans."

More and more, some now say that so can the two groups which make up the artificial country of Belgium.

See also:
» The former Moldavian SSR: A non-country which broke in two
» The shared - and not so shared - history of Pridnestrovie and Moldova
» Scotland's voters choose independence

On the web:
» Flanders Online