Making sense of nonsense: Voronin's game of chicken

Former Soviet general Vladimir Voronin is now the president of Moldova, the poorest country in Europe, and PMR fears a new war

NEW YORK (Special to The Tiraspol Times) - A short lived American TV series, Jackass, was an "adult" version of the childhood game known as chicken. The latter exhibits such "bravery" as seeing who will be the last person off of the train tracks to an approaching train. The Jackass TV show and chicken game involve a warped sense of gratification which has a definite following among some.

International diplomacy has its own version of chicken. Some of the participants of this type aren't always so willing to engage in such manner. It can often times be a matter of not having much choice in dealing with an "I dare you" challenge.

Prior to the 1999 NATO bombing campaign against Yugoslavia (then consisting of Serbia and Montenegro), the Yugoslav delegation went to Rambouillet with the idea of negotiating a settlement for the southern Serb province of Kosovo. The Clinton Administration thought differently. With the threat of bombing as an option, the Clinton Administration wanted Yugoslavia to sign a diktat that would've seen Belgrade eventually lose Kosovo (the Rambouillet diktat had a clause allowing the mostly Albanian inhabited Kosovo to have an independence referendum). At the time of the diktat's presentation, some neo-liberal observers rather confidently stated that a few dropped bombs on the Serbs would get them to sign the agreement. What transpired instead was a Yugoslav challenge to have NATO ground forces enter Serb territory (which includes Kosovo) for a showdown.
Common sense eventually prevailed, with both combatants agreeing to UN Resolution 1244, which recognizes Kosovo as a part of Serbia (Serbia is the internationally recognized successor state to Yugoslavia, of which Kosovo was a province of the Serb republic in Yugoslavia).

In the early part of this year, some political circles reasonably assumed that Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin was on the verge of forging closer ties with Russia. Moldova's horrid socioeconomic conditions aren't attractive to the already over burdened and prissy EU. A Moldovan swing towards Russia was reasonably thought to include the idea of reuniting the former Moldavian SSR (Moldova and Pridnestrovie) into a confederation, which would give Pridnestrovie broad autonomy.

This past August, Moldova announced policies indicating closer ties to NATO. These ties have been further enhanced. Russia and Moldova are apparently unable to reach a common understanding on Pridnestrovie. In all likelihood, Moscow holds firm that Chisinau should agree to allow Tiraspol broad autonomy. This remains a sore point among extreme elements within the Moldovan political establishment. For them, Pridnestrovie's government is a totally illegitimate clique. An unrealistic view, seeing how Pridnestrovie's population overwhelmingly prefers the Tiraspol leadership over Chisinau's.

The former Soviet general-turned-Moldovan-president Voronin (who once called post-Soviet Moldova's flag "Fascist") is pursuing a Soviet like guns over butter economy, with NATO encouragement in the form of increased military aid to Moldova. Just what Europe's poorest country needs!

There's a method to this madness. As a means of covering up a government's economic woes, the use of military force is one way to divert attention away from its clear failures in the civilian sector. No one in their right mind believes that Pridnestrovie or Romania is considering an attack on Moldova. On the other hand, some political forces in Moldova desire taking over Pridnestrovie, despite a poll showing that most Moldovans are willing to let Pridnestrovie be independent.

Voronin's recently released spin about not seeking a military option doesn't dismiss Moldova's arms buildup. It's not too late for the Moldovan government to change its current stance. The Moldovan body politic is by no means a monolith on Pridnestrovie.

Russia and Pridnestrovie would be smart to let this charade play out. As much as the Russia unfriendly crowd yearns for a "New Cold War", the reality is that Russia and the West have a growing economic interdependence, which doesn't seek being interrupted by flawed nationalist machinations. Western support for Kosovo independence and Mikheil Saakashvili's shaky Georgian government are more understandable than support for the back and forth (between Moscow and the West) Communist Voronin: A number of prominent Western officials are holdovers from the anti-Serb campaign of the last decade. Unlike Voronin, Saakashvili, spent a good deal of time in America under neo-conservative and neo-liberal influences.

Russia should present a firmly stated position on the former Moldavian SSR.
A large scale Western ignorance on some global issues has made it possible for a coterie of agenda driven policymakers to see their views getting the nod from the top brass. This situation and the potential aftereffect necessitates Pridnestrovie having a viable defense (public relations and armed forces wise) against expansionist aims made against its will.

See also:
» Is there a Moscow brokered deal for Moldova and Pridnestrovie?
» Moldova and USA confirm closer military ties
» As Moldova aligns with NATO, Transdniester fears new attacks