US intelligence briefing predicts future PMR statehood as "likely"

In the US intelligence community some now predict full and recognized statehood for Pridnestrovie

NEW YORK (Tiraspol Times) - A just-issued intelligence report circulating privately at the United Nations General Assembly this week predicts recognized statehood for Pridnestrovie following the landslide win in the unrecognized country's independence referendum Sunday.

Parts of the report found its way into an unclassified intelligence briefing compiled 19 September by PINR, the Power and Interest News Report, based in Chicago. In it, intelligence analysts make the probable assumption that PMR will soon be part of the world map as a separate country and base their analysis on the existence of, textually, the existence of "a likely future Transdniester country."

An excerpt:

" Now, with Transdniester's decidedly pro-Russian course, Moscow is almost sure that a halt to the eastward expansion of N.A.T.O. has finally been achieved, although Moldova's post-Soviet elites remain eager to join the European Union and the West. It is unlikely that Belarus, Ukraine and a likely future Transdniester country will ever join the Atlantic security and defense organization, enabling Russia to maintain influence and leverage in its former Soviet periphery on geostrategic terms, with the exception of the Baltic states that are linked geopolitically and culturally to Poland and Central Europe and are solid U.S. allies. "

Pridnestrovie, also known as Transnistria or Transdniester, declared independence in 1990 but has never been formally recognized by the international community and remains isolated from the international system. As the country is democratizing from within, change is also happening from without and some parts of the intelligence community now predict that it is only a matter of time before its statehood becomes formalized.

State Department disagrees

In the business of spotting the trends, analysts in the American intelligence community are ahead of their colleagues at Foggy Bottom. As recent as this week, the US State Department still spoke out in favor of a unification of Moldova and PMR, notwithstanding the latter's loud and clear rejection of that proposal in Sunday's vote. Moreover, State has given no indications that "a future Transdniester country" figures into its planning yet.

" - But that is a mistake," said a retired American official. "You can plan for events, and when you do, you have a degree of control over them. Or you can do the Ostrich, but that won't stop the world from turning. If they want to burn their bridges, it is not the first time, but it doesn't have to be that way because Tiraspol is not a regional threat or even remotely dangerous to anyone. It is more like a Russified version of Luxembourg."

As a realistic assessment of the situation is taking hold, the thinking has begun on how to best handle the transition and ensure that the West does not paint itself into a corner in the region.

Pridnestrovie has its own flag, currency, constitution and all the other attributes of statehood. And according to the world's leading treaty on the subject, it already successfully passes the test for becoming a country. The Montevideo Convention sets out four requirements for a country to achieve statehood under international law: A permanent population, a defined territory, a government and the ability to relate to other states. Pridnestrovie, de facto independent since 1990, meets all four requirements.

Under international law, statehood is an empirical fact which does not change whether or not other countries recognize it. Article 3 of the Montevideo Convention states that “The political existence of the state is independent of recognition by other states.” The United States is a signatory to Montevideo.

In a referendum held 17 September, voters in Pridnestrovie backed independence by a wide margin. The outcome of the vote showed 97.1 percent in favor of maintaining the pro-independence stance, and that 94.6 percent rejecting a proposal for giving up independence aspirations in order to subsequently become part of the Republic of Moldova.