Ending the Transdniester frozen conflict

Some recent indications suggest that the time may be ripe for a creative approach aimed at finding a constructive solution to political settlement of the frozen conflict in Transdniester.

The number of people who feel strongly about unification are equivalent among both sides to the conflict:
Only 3.3 percent of Transdniestrian voters wanted unification with Moldova in a September 2006 referendum, while in Moldova, a respected Moldovan polling firm says that only 4.3 percent of Moldovans consider Transdniester to be a priority.

Outside parties, such as Russia, the United States and the OSCE should prepare to help Moldova think through a resolution to the conflict which take these sentiments into account.

Chisinau should also be ready to discuss any questions with the Transdniestrian side, including the questions of independence. The position held by President Smirnov, as the legitimately elected leader of the Transdniestrian people, has to be taken into account as an important component in any status settlement process and considered when proposing changes aimed at a future constitutional arrangement accommodating both sides. If goodwill can be found, no obstacles are insuperable.

The frozen conflict over Transdniester is now well into its second decade. A brief but bloody war, followed by uncertainty and a long series of economic sanctions, has devastated the economy of an area which was formerly one of the most prosperous in the Soviet Union. Trade between the two sides to the conflict represents just one percent of the total. Both Transdniester's and Moldova's economies have been held back by the continued uncertainty and lack of cooperation between the two banks of the Dniester river. Jointly, Transdniester and Moldova now make up the poorest corner of Europe, in large part as a result of their continued inability to work out their differences.

In these circumstances, a negotiated settlement should be sought that builds on such basic principles as freedom, human rights and democracy.

Essential to solving the conflict will be a renewed will to show compromise and mutual understanding of the sensitive issues facing each side.

With that in mind, a constructive framework for a peaceful resolution of the conflict could involve these major points:

• The Transdniestrians - even if not formally disowning their hope for independence, on behalf of which many of them died - would consider a model of co-habitation with Moldova in a confederation. This would be one of two options to be decided upon in a future referendum organized and supervised by the OSCE.
  
  

• Moldova would acknowledge the right of the Transdniestrians to true democracy and self-determination.
  
  

• A referendum would be held in which the Transdniestrians would be given the opportunity to approve the constitutional basis for extensive self-government and participation, either within Moldova as a federated state or, as a second option, outside Moldova in a supervised process leading to internationally recognized independence.
  
  

• International support must be committed to a substantial program of economic reconstruction, with an international presence on the ground in order to promote the stabilization of Transdniester society.

There is a reasonable probability that realism would dictate acceptance of that approach by the government of Moldova, except for its most radical hardliners. While hardline nationalists at the top of government represent a distinct minority, there is clear evidence that most ordinary Moldovans would sigh with relief at the conflict's peaceful termination.

Such an outcome would resolve a painful issue that has been not only tragic in its consequences but that also continues to impede both the stable democratization of Moldova itself and its increasing engagement in wider cooperation with both Russia and the West. Last but not least, it would bring justice to the people of Transdniestria who have waited seventeen long years for it.

Also by John Moynihan:
» The Fourth World: Invisible countries
» Memo to State: Face up to reality