On 22 June 2007, in Odessa, was held the first conference of the international forum "The Future of Transnistria". The forum brought together representatives from Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine and the EU. I say "first conference" because the intention is to make the forum a permanent, ongoing event.

It is planned to set up a working group of experts and politicians and to open offices in Chisinau, Tiraspol, Ukraine, Russia and the EU.

So what did the first conference of the forum unveil?

First, it once again showed that there are very significant and deep differences between how Moldova and Transnistria see the future of Transnistria.

Secondly, despite this, representatives from Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine and the EU nevertheless opted for an open and honest dialogue about the best ways for a common search for the most acceptable ways and effective methods of addressing the Transnistria issue.

Thirdly, and this is perhaps the most important point right now, policy makers and experts from Chisinau and Tiraspol once again confirmed that the only way forward is through joint negotiations and common searches for trade-offs and mutually acceptable compromises. There are simply no other ways. Both sides categorically rejected any military or other type of confrontational solution to the problem through use of force.

What do the participants in the forum recommend?

First of all, the widely held general view is that no solution to the Transnistrian issue can be found without participation of civil society. This means enhancing cooperation in Chisinau and Tiraspol not just between parliamentarians and political parties, but also civil society in general, independent media, and all sorts of expert groups. It was felt that representatives from Russia, Ukraine and the EU could initially serve as organizers of these contacts. Special hope for long term activity in this direction is places of deputies of Russia's State Duma, leading political parties of Russia, as well as prominent Russian experts.

Next, the participants in the forum expressed their belief that any road, no matter how long and arduous it may seem today, always begins with the first step. This first step The first step could be the development of agreed projects and programs of cooperation between the two banks of the Dniester river in a variety of areas: Political, economic, social and cultural life.

Those who appeared at the forum's first conference believe that this work will be only be possible after both sides agree that in this conflict resolution process there should not be a "major" and a "minor" player, and that no one must be allowed to engage in attempts at pressure and coercion. The main principle is the both sides are equal, enjoying the same equal rights and equal responsibilities.

Based on the first conference of the Odessa Forum, I am sure that, despite the large number of incompatible positions held by the two sides, there is nevertheless a real opportunity to find a universal solution to this problem which can satisfy all the concerned parties, and in the first place, of course, Moldova and Transnistria.

Yes, this journey will be long and full of obstacles. But, as one of the participants in the forum said, if we select the careful, but wise and foresighted tactics of the "small, but necessary matters ', if we begin finally to practically collaborate, and not only infinitely to discuss, then everything early or only later compulsorily will come out.

But, as one of the a panelists in the forum said, we must carefully choose a wise and far-sighted tactic of "small, but necessary matters" and finally begin to actually cooperate instead of endlessly arguing with each other. This road can only be useful for those who embark on it, and this requires Moldova and Transnistria to first bury the hatchet and start moving towards each other.

In this case it is very important, even before they begin, to have a common understanding of what it is that all of us wnat to achieve. Today, from the Moldovan side, the clear goal is to unify the country with Transnistria. But from the Transnistrian side, the discussion centers on how best to conduct a "peaceful and civilized divorce."

Obviously, if the future common work of the forum's participants is based on such a precarious foundation, then it is unlikely that they will ever achieve anything concrete and meaningful.

This brings us to the question of "what can be done in this difficult situation?"
In my view there is only one solution: Finding new approaches.

To do so, we need to start from the premise - as expressed during the conference by well known Moldovan expert Victor Josu - that not everything is moving in the right direction inside Moldova. This is not merely a matter of the many mistakes and serious miscalculations in the domestic and foreign policies of Moldova's ruling Communist Party. Because if we simply remove the Communists from government and replace them with one of the other existing Moldovan parties, then this change - in itself - will not result in any dramatic changes for the better.

Instead, the problem is much deeper and larger. It testifies to a a deep stagnation of social and political life in the country and a total lack of good ideas in the entire Moldovan political class. I personally do not have any doubts that the critically disposed and analytically minded people in Transnistria also understand that their region fares badly in this area, too. I know firsthand that they also don't like the current situation in the region.

In this regard, Victor Josu said that it wasn't worth the effort to try to artificially link these two, in general, sick political organisms and expect that such a marriage would produce a viable offspring. This is now impossible. In such a situation it is better to think about which healthy social and political forces exist in Moldova to build the future of the country: To build such Moldova, which will be equally free, good and comfortable to all.

I am convinced that if this happens, then Transnistria will not be 'incorporated' into Moldova against the will of the Transnistrians, but as things stand today, they fear - and not without reason - that they can not be equal partners in a common creative approach to problem solving. By the way, most likely this idea will also find support in Gagauzia which also dislikes the current situation in Moldova a lot.

The leader of the Patriotic Party of Pridnestrovie (PPP), Oleg Smirnov, speaking at the conference, emphasized that Moldova needed to understand that there are certain values which are non-negotiable and which Transnistrians will not relinquish under any circumstances.

Although time constraints prevented him for going into detail, it is easy to guess that the Transnistrians can not abandon the values and public institutions which they formed during the seventeen years that they have been located outside Moldova's jurisdiction.

But the real question is: What prevents the Transnistrians from including these values in the foundations of building a new and united Moldova? I think that only the desire from each side to exclude the other side prevents this, but this is a problem that could certainly be solved.

It goes without saying that to carry out such a complex project will require a lot of time, joint efforts and a mutual willingness to give and take. Overall, Transnistria is not yet ready for this. And I am not so sure that Moldova is either. In Moldova, many - especially those who hold power - are quite comfortable living in Moldova the way the situation is today. I am not even sure that opposition parties want to seriously change anything. The same can be said for a large part of those in power in Transnistria, who don't want changes for fear that they could lose their leadership positions and become marginalized. But in terms of the overall interests of Moldova, taking into account also the interests of Transnistria and Gagauzia, the most important thing is that for the people as a whole, such changes are vitally necessary.

I am confident that, if we can agree on this central issue, then it will then be much easier to find common ground which will then enable us to successfully implement fundamental European values, develop friendly relations and a strategic partnership with Russia, and develop mutually beneficial partnerships with Ukraine.

Today, there is still reason to hope that we can solve this problem and jointly build a new Moldova.

There can be no doubts that Russia will be an important loyal friend and reliable helper in the case. A friendly, neighboring Ukraine should also not be left out. And another active participant in the process will be the European Union.

But all of this will only be possible when we move from words to deeds.

Delaying this process will only lead to what can be a 'point of no return' where we'll no longer have the favorable conditions for a peaceful resolution of the conflict that still exists today. When we reach that fatal point, nothing can cut the fateful "Gordian knot" which has been created by our own mistakes and unwillingness to compromise.

We expect that others will solve the conflict for us - be they Russia, Ukraine, the EU, USA, NATO, or our Lord God - and that all we have to do is sit back and reap the fruits of the work of outsiders. The sooner the political class of Moldova and Transnistria, including those who are in power, rid themselves of these illusions, the more chance there is that the current generation of Moldovan and Transnistrian citizens can live together in a united, democratic and prosperous single state.

About the author: Vitalie Andriescu is a Moldovan political analyst who lives in Chisinau, Moldova. He wants a union of Moldova and Pridnestrovie within a single, common state. He wants Moldova to stop treating Pridnestrovie as an enemy, and says there is no hope of reaching an understanding between Moldova and Pridnestrovie as long as the two sides maintain their current antagonistic positions.

See also:
» Vitalie Andriescu: "Settlement talks should be restarted with a fresh slate" [1]