Moldova more afraid of Kosovo independence than Serbia

Will Kosovo be free? Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the EU Member States urge Kosovo Albanians to refrain from a unilateral declaration of independence, whereas Washington promises to recognize the independence of the would-be country as soon as January. Russia's viewpoint is clear; it is against the separation from Serbia and suggests “wide autonomy” instead. The world finds itself in a diplomatic deadlock, fraught with the tensions in the Balkans.

The EU special representative for the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, is optimistic about the future. “I hope that the declaration of independence of Kosovo will not become a destabilizing factor in the Balkans,” he said while also adding that the EU wants to think that Kosovo is a special case. “Every conflict has its own history, its specific character and every conflict needs an individual approach, respecting the international law. The resolution of the Kosovo problem must not have any influence on the resolution of other conflicts but perhaps it is inevitable that Kosovo will give birth to hopes or apprehensions for other unsolved problems. Nevertheless, the EU is always for the resolution of any kind of conflict exceptionally from point of view of international law,” emphasized the Finnish diplomat. And from nearby Sweden, Minister for Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt announced that Hashim Thaçi must understand the difference between the announcements made by an oppositional politician and by responsible political figures.

Several years ago Carl Bildt was the active mediator in the negotiations held over the issue of the status of Kosovo, which he called “the most sensitive region in Europe, where any abrupt movement may be fatal”. The EU representatives and the UN Administration in Kosovo say that Thaçi most probably will put the declaration of independence off till a more suitable period, to achieve a maximum support abroad. “Thaçi will take an advantageous position, but he will do nothing unless Washington and the EU key Member States give him the permission. He very carefully follows America's advice. And they choose mid January,” quotes the British The Guardian the words of a UN official, working in the capital of Kosovo, Pristina.

The headquarters of both NATO and the UN in Kosovo have designed contingency plans, preparing for inter-ethnic violations and massacres, attacks by the paramilitaries from both sides, hostage crisis and the control of North Kosovo by Serbian military, leading to secession of that part of Kosovo with a possible breakup and the possibility of a second declaration of independence shortly following the first.

The fact that the creation of the seventh state on the ruins of Yugoslavia is currently happening with the encouragement of most of the so-called international community may have decisive consequences for the neighboring countries. This is particularly applicable for Bosnia, where the non-functioning model of federated state and three component republics, invented at Dayton, is still kept on life support. In Bosnia, political instability and dysfunctionality is the norm, and Bosnian Serbs are watching Kosovo closely for signs of a “Kosovo precedent” that can be used to declare their own independence.

Can there be a “Kosovo precedent” for Transnistria. No, says Transnistria's President Igor Smirnov. He believes that Kosovo is irrelevant to Transnistria, simply because Transnistria has much better grounds for independence than Kosovo.

The most important thing is that independence of Transnistria was won and not granted. This is a very important factor in conflict regulation process. One thing is being granted this independence by someone and another thing is to win it. Transnistria doesn't owe anything to anyone. This is why Moldova is more afraid of the independence of Kosovo than Serbia is. Everything is clear here: If Kosovo is separated, there will be war. Whereas in the case of Transnistria, a flare-up of military actions by Moldova will end as quickly as they start.

The international community supports democracy and self-determination through a free and democratic vote. Many of the key viewpoints of the international community are at odds with Chisinau's plans for integrating Transnistria into a single Moldovan state that the overwhelming majority Transnistria does not want to be part of.

Also by John Moynihan:
» Memo to State: Face up to reality
» The Fourth World: Invisible countries
» Ending the Transdniester frozen conflict
» Double standards over Kosovo
» Why 1924-thinking for Transnistria - Moldova unification won't work
» Transnistria next in line for recognition?
» "Massive" ethnic cleansing in Transnistria
» No one's permission needed for Transnistria independence