Moldova is right to be worried about Kosovo

Both Romania and Moldova should be extremely nervous about current developments over the status of Kosovo, to the point where Romania looks likely to block a common EU position recognizing an eventual Kosovar declaration of independence.

Such a declaration is expected within months if not weeks, after talks broke down on securing an agreement on the future of Kosovo between Serbia and the ethnic Albanian leaders of its breakaway south.

All along, the United States and parts of the European Union have encouraged the Kosovo Albanian to press forward - no holds barred - in their demand for independence, indicating that they would somehow guarantee international recognition of the new would-be state regardless of whatever Serbia said.

Within the EU, Romania's president has made it clear that his country backs Serbia in not wanting to recognize the statehood of an eventually independent Kosovo. And the reason for that is that the precedent set by international recognition of a unilateral declaration of independence in Kosovo could easily impact Moldova, Romania's neighbor and (until 1940) historically a part of Romania.

While NATO may claim UN backing for its initial military intervention in Kosovo to protect the Albanian population there, to redraw the map as a result of that intervention is an entirely different matter. To partition a sovereign member of the United Nations without its consent would be a flagrant violation of the UN charter, thus once and for all rewriting the rulebook of international diplomacy.

Indeed, Moldova and Romania are not the only European countries to be reticent. Cyprus, which is already split into two countries - one "de facto" and one "de jure" - is another opponent. So is Spain, with its own regional separatists movements, and Greece, which backs Cyprus. Slovakia is also reluctant to go forward, and, behind the scenes, there are even doubts from a few others in the EU camp as well.

For Moldova, the dangers are obvious: International law is the only thing that Moldova can cling to in order to claim a "territorial integrity" which in reality doesn't exist and has never existed at any time since the country declared independence. And now, it appears, Kosovo is about to change international law and replace it with the ruthless reality of raw power politics.

If Kosovo is recognized by some, why shouldn't Transnistria be recognized as well by others? And to hell with the legal niceties... Serbia is weak, recovering from more than a decade as an international pariah. But Moldova is also weak, after years of being mismanaged by an authoritarian president, full of corruption and currently the poorest country in Europe. Slowly but with certainty, many in Europe are now opening their eyes to the fact that Moldova is really part of the problem, not part of the solution.

Recognition of Transnistria could soon no longer be the taboo for the international community that it has been until now. The Moldovan government may at last be waking up to that reality. It is worried, and with reason.

Victor Lupu is a Moldovan/Romanian speaking writer whose previous article on the history of Moldova appeared in "The Tiraspol Times & Weekly Review" in August, 2007 and who in September also wrote the opinion column entitled "Why Moldova should worry about Kosovo".