Kosovo's "inevitable" independence sets important precedent for Transdniestria; others

British conflict resolution specialist Stefan Wolff says Kosovo independence sets an important precedent. (Photo: Nell Freeman)

PRISTINA (Tiraspol Times) - A leading conflict resolution specialist, whose work is funded by the European Commission and who teaches for the British Ministry of Defense, says that there is no doubt that Kosovo will become independent. He also says that Kosovo's independence will set an important precedent for other states seeking independence or international recognition of their current de facto situation on the ground.

Professor Stefan Wolff, a leading expert at The University of Nottingham, said Kosovo's future is crucial for stability in the Balkans and will set an important precedent for similar conflicts worldwide.

" - Kosovo's independence is inevitable, and this fact, a reality on the ground for almost a decade, must finally be accepted," said Wolff, who is Director of the Centre for International Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution at the University's School of Politics and International Relations.

Unilateral declaration of independence

The government of Kosovo is widely expected to declare independence in the very near future, overriding strong objections from Serbia, which the area is formally a de jure part of. Formally a province of Serbia, Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations since 1999 after a NATO bombing campaign forced the constitutional Serb government to flee the area.

Just like Moldova's position in Transdniestria, Serbia currently has no meaningful government authority over the area and can not exercise any sovereign rights within the territory.

Transdniestria declared independence in 1990, one year before the current Moldova came into existence as an independent republic. While the international community generally recognized Moldova's independence declaration, it has so far failed to do the same for Transdniestria's.

Democratically elected Igor Smirnov, the current President of Transdniestria, says that his 'de facto' country has a better case for independence under international law than Kosovo.

When compared to Kosovo, Transdniestria's president Igor Smirnov has noted that his country - which is officially called Pridnestrovie, according to its constitution - has a stronger legal and historical claim to independent statehood.

" - Pridnestrovie has a better case for independence, according to international law," Smirnov told visiting journalists earlier this month.

No consensual divorce

Kosovo's new government — led by former Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) commander Hashim Thaci — is now expected to declare a permanent parting of the ways from Serbia.

" - The way in which Kosovo gains its independence seems clear. Serbian, and Kosovo Albanian intransigence has made it impossible for a consensual solution to be achieved in negotiations. A new resolution in the Security Council confirming the conditions of Kosovo's independence is equally unlikely because of Russian opposition," said Professor Wolff.

" - Hence, a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo will be followed by recognition of Kosovo's independent statehood by the US, the EU and its member states, and by countries organized in the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference."

Kosovo is unlikely to receive universal recognition, putting it in the status of unrecognized or partially recognized states alongside other de facto countries such as Transdniestria, Somaliland, Northern Cyprus, Taiwan and Abkhazia, and other states which function as separate sovereign and independent states despite their limited international recognition and no U.N. membership.

" - Several countries have serious domestic concerns about recognizing Kosovo following a unilateral declaration of independence, among them Romania, Spain, and Slovakia," said Wolff. "The most serious opposition can be expected from Cyprus, fearing that Kosovo would strengthen Turkish Cypriot claims to their own state — despite the fact that Turkish Cypriots accepted the Annan Plan for reunification in 2004, just before Cyprus's accession to the EU, unlike their Greek Cypriot counterparts."

Stefan Wolff specializes in conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-torn societies. He supports the doctrine that sometimes self-determination based on a civilized divorce between two sides if the best option rather than forced integration. His work has been funded by the European Commission, the UK Foreign Office, the British Academy, and others.

He is an International Associate of the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-determination at Princeton University. Since 2005 he has also been teaching at the Joint Services Command and Staff College of the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.

See also:
» President: Transdniester deserves independence more than Kosovo
» Russia ready to recognize Pridnestrovie if Kosovo gets independence
» If Kosovo gets it, Transdniestria wants recognized independence too
» On Kosovo and Transdniestria, United States hammered for "pseudo-reality" portrayals

Opinion and commentary:
» Transnistria next in line for recognition?
» Like it or not, here's the Kosovo precedent

On the web:
» State sovereignty of PMR (Pridnestrovie) under international law