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Conflict expert Thomas de Waal, London: "Kosovo's independence will have a strong ripple effect"

LONDON (Tiraspol Times) - A leading expert on territorial conflicts in what used to be the Soviet Union says that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence will have a strong ripple effect. Thomas de Waal, who is the Caucasus Editor at London's IWPR, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, writes in his latest commentary for The Wall Street Journal that Kosovo is further thawing conflicts that have been mistakenly called "frozen."

" - Whether the West likes it or not, Kosovo's independence will have a strong ripple effect," notes Thomas de Waal: "Consider the calculation made by the de facto leaders of Abkhazia or Nagorno-Karabakh when they hear the news from Kosovo: They will be even less likely to try to sell a bargain to their people that entails "return" to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan or Georgia."

" - Recognition of Kosovo’s independence does change the situation elsewhere, whether Westerners like it or not," he also stated to Balkan Insight.

Fear of new wars

De Waal warns that new wars may be on the horizon: Azerbaijan has the fastest-growing defense budget in the world, while the Georgian government recently renamed its conflict resolution ministry into the more aggressively titled "ministry for reintegration."

" - Kosovo is further thawing conflicts that have been mistakenly called "frozen." The peace processes are already all but dead. Around Nagorno-Karabakh, now under Armenian control, snipers exchange deadly fire across a 200 kilometer cease-fire line," he adds. "Shooting incidents and kidnappings set nerves jangling in Abkhazia and South Ossetia."

Thomas de Waal is Caucasus Editor at IWPR, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting. He is also the author of “Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War” (NYU Press, 2003); a book which focuses on the independence struggle of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic.

" - In truth, neither side here will get what they want. Full independence for these territories is highly implausible, especially when large minority populations remain in exile and are not consulted; but integration of these territories into Azerbaijan or Georgia, places they have had nothing in common with since Soviet times and fought wars against, is also fantasy," says Thomas de Waal. "The only way "reintegration" can be achieved is through another catastrophic war. Everyone knows that some kind of shared sovereignty must be the eventual outcome."

"Look what the Kosovars got"

Speaking of Abkhazia and Nagorno Karabakh, two already de-facto independent countries, Thomas de Waal repeats that re-integration into their former states of Georgia and Azerbaijan are no longer serious options for them. He explains that the natural response from the public will be: “Look what the Kosovars got. We won’t settle for less.”

" - President Vladimir Putin has also proved more far-sighted than his Western counterparts in predicting that Kosovo’s independence declaration would have repercussions for other separatist disputes while politicians in Washington or Brussels were insisting in a legalistic fashion that 'Kosovo does not set a precedent'," explains de Waal.

In his final press conference as Russia’s President on February 14, Putin pressed home this point. “We are told all the time: Kosovo is a special case,” Putin said. “It is all lies. There is no special case and everybody understands it perfectly well.”

According to Thomas de Waal, Abkhazia possesses fairly viable institutions, including a presidency, parliament, media and NGOs. Numerous other analysts have also pointed out that as a separate country, it stands a better chance for long-term statehood than Kosovo. So does Transdniestria (officially, Pridnestrovie) which since 1990 has governed itself without any form of financial aid from international monetary institutions, the European Union, the United Nations or its neighbor, Moldova.

The Republic of Moldova is Europe's poorest country. It declared independence from the Soviet Union one year later than Transdniestria, in 1991. In 1992 it crossed the Dniester river to attack the Republic of Transdniestria but was unable to establish its sovereignty over the territory and had to sign a cease-fire which is today overseen by a team of multinational peacekeepers from a total of four countries and representatives of the 56-member nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

See also:
» Pridnestrovie independence follows Kosovo's, govt says [1]
» After Kosovo precedent, Transdniestria re-affirms independence commitment [2]
» PMR Foreign Ministry: "Kosovo sets new model for conflict solving" [3]

Opinion and commentary:
» Echoes from Kosovo reach Pridnestrovie, bringing new hope to status talks [4]