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Snapshot of non-scientific website poll (click to enlarge)

TIRASPOL (Tiraspol Times) - One day before Sunday's presidential election in Pridnestrovie, opinion polls show incumbent president Igor Smirnov in the lead. His leads varies from poll to poll, with most available polls being unscientific web-based opinion polls.

Mr Smirnov has held the top job for the past 16 years, since independence was declared on 2 September 1990. He says that he seeks re-election because his life's work won't be done until Pridnestrovie, which is also known as Transnistria or Transdniester, achives widespread international recognition as a sovereign country.

In the largest and most recent Internet poll, held by Tiraspol-based online news agency "Lenta PMR", Smirnov hangs on to a very narrow lead over Communist Party candidate Nadezhda Bondarenko. With 46,000 website visitors voting, Smirnov and Bondarenko appear to be in a virtual dead heat with 30% of voter intentions each and less than 200 "web votes" separating them.

Experts caution that the poll - which can be followed online at www.tiras.ru [1] - should not be used as a firm indicator of overall voter intentions. In this and similar polls, anyone with an Internet connection can "vote" in a set of predetermined preferences. Such polls, say pollsters, are notoriously unreliable and skewed towards users with Internet connectivity. They should not be considered representative indicators of the final outcome.

Four candidate, hard criticism from opposition

The election for president takes place this Sunday, 10 December, between four registered candidates, making it the widest field so far. In the past 16 year of Pridnestrovie's independent history, each election has only seen three candidates at the most.

Registered to stand in PMR's 2006 presidential election, the candidates are:

• Igor Smirnov, the incumbent president (seeking a new term)
  
  

• Nadezhda Bondarenko, a journalist and editor of the party organ of the PMR Communist Party
  
  

• Andrey Safonov, an opposition journalist
  
  

• Peter Tomayly, a businessman and member of parliament

Incumbent Igor Smirnov, seeking re-election, has received hard criticism from several of his opposition challengers. Outspoken critic Andrey Safonov, owner of the unrecognized country's largest opposition newspaper, has engaged in mudslinging in a short but aggressive election campaign.

As reported by Infotag, according to an opinion poll held in the streets of Tiraspol and four other major cities last week, over 18% local voters were ready to cast ballots for Andrei Safonov.

This compares with nearly 20% of voters who reportedly are prepared to cast their ballot for the candidate of the PMR Communist Party, Nadezhda Bondarenko, the Editor-in-Chief of the party newspaper "Pravda Pridnestrovya" ("The Truth of Transdniester").

The poll reported by Infotag puts Igor Smirnov in the lead, while BBC cites correspondents as saying that Smirnov is in a strong position to win in the first round.

Although Smirnov-supported pro government party Respublica lost its previous majority in last year's parliamentary election to newcomer and opposition party Renewal, the personal popularity of Igor Smirnov remains high in Tiraspol and other major cities. He is seen as the major bulwark against Moldova by a population which has fought a war - in 1992 - for independence. Neighboring Moldova is extremely unpopular among the population, with even ethnic Moldovans voting in favor of independence and rejecting unification with Moldova.

In a 17 September refernedum, 94% of voters rejected unification with Moldova and 97% said that they supported independence along with closer ties to Russia. Turnout was 78% and the referendum was monitored by 178 international observers, declaring the vote free and fair.

For Sunday's election, more than 100 international observers have already been given credentials. A candidate needs an absolute majority of votes cast in order to win. If at least 50% is not achieved by any single candidate in the four-sided race, the top two candidates will compete in a later run-off election.

Update: The organizers of the above web poll, Lenta PMR, announced [2] that it had been hacked, and they took it off their website as a result. According to information posted by the organizers, several individuals managed to vote a total of 1,543 times and thus skew the results.

See also:
» Presidential candidates disagree on common state with Moldova [3]