Transnistria's independence will help Moldova's EU plans

The end of 1980s is a time of big troubles for the Soviet Union. Some constituent republics produce large popular movements asking for independence. Moldova isn't an exception. Germany reunites in 1990. Fearing possible Moldovan reunion with Romania, the Transnistria region de facto separates administratively from Moldova. They haven't been part of Romania except briefly during the World War II after all. They feel more attached to Russia for many historic and cultural reasons, last but not least of them being that the population is predominantly composed of russophones. Russia supports militarily and economically Transnistria for most of the post-1991 period. Officially it neither recognizes its independence nor claims sovereignty over it. It's its chief bargaining chip against Moldova; it promises to influence Transnistria in order to secure its possible large autonomy within Moldova, but at the cost of Moldova turning its back to the West in all its forms, NATO, EU, and of course saying farewell to any reunion with Romania.

It is time to finally put all things in their places. The situation between 1990 and 2006 seems untenable for all sides in political and diplomatic conflict surrounding Transnistria. Moldova has already made its mind in terms of international orientation; the West has no real alternative; Russia is too unpredictable to be considered as a reliable partner; tens of thousands Moldovan citizens have already applied for Romanian citizenship, benefiting from the country's future EU membership. There was one more element that was missing before; the referendum in Montenegro set a EU-approved standard for independence through popular consultation. What's perfectly legal on the Balkans cannot be declared illegal in the former Soviet Union.

Despite all possible boycotts and rejections coming from the West, people in Brussels (NATO, EU) actually want this new independence to happen. They cannot force Russia to give this region back to Moldova, they cannot either easily recognize its independence, what they can do is to close their eyes on it. Transnistria won't set a precedent. No current NATO or EU members will have their interests harmed as a result.

Transnistria referendum gave a clear "yes" on the question of independence from Moldova. The West will have to accept the fact, Transnistria is a very small and without any strategic interest chunk of land, and nobody will be ready to fight for it after all. The West doesn't need to fight for it either. In any case Transnistria won't make a difference.

The real difference will be felt in Moldova, which will have to say farewell to all its ambitions of eastward territorial enlargement. Still without clear European perspective it may decide to accelerate the process by making itself annexed by Romania, an already NATO and very soon an EU member. Making itself annexed by Romania is the best thing most people in Moldova can aspire for. If Transnistria has all reasons to feel comfortable within Russia, Moldova proper has no fewer reasons to feel comfortable within Romania, especially when Romania is already part of Europe.

Simon Mitropolitski is a former syndicated columnist with Bulgarian News Agency BTA. He co-founded the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. He now lives in Montreal, Canada. A longer version of this article was published in 2006 by the International Real Estate Digest.